Picks

Methodology

Published by Stock Market Picks. Version 1.0 (scoring) · 1.0 (analysis rules). Every number on this site can be reproduced from the stored recommendations, prices and these rules.

1. The panel

The Stock Consensus 100 is a fixed list of 100 sources plus Stock Market Picks's own featured pickers. "Best" means highest-ranked under this methodology within the eligible panel; it does not claim to have evaluated every stock picker in existence. Membership is reviewed quarterly, prior lists and effective dates are preserved, and retired members stay in the historical record.

Each member has a role. Originators, newsletters, fund managers, short sellers and featured pickers cast votes. Aggregators (news sites, data portals, brokerages that redistribute research) and communities are reporting channels: a call they relay is credited to the originator once. The same analyst call reported by Yahoo Finance, CNBC and MarketBeat is one vote, not four. A repeat of an identical active call within 7 days is logged as a duplicate and does not create a new vote.

2. Source Quality rubric (0–100)

Every source is scored on five published criteria, 0–20 each. These describe the quality of the evidence a source produces, not its stock-picking skill.

3. Picker Performance Score (0–100)

Computed only from completed calls with price history, at the 63-session horizon, one observation per recommendation episode (reiterations do not count twice). Components are converted to percentiles within the panel, then combined: 50% benchmark-relative return, 30% directional success rate, 20% consistency across calendar quarters. The result is shrunk toward 50 for small samples (weight n/(n+10)). Members with fewer than 30 completed episodes are labeled "small sample"; fully ranked status needs 24 months of history, 30 episodes and 10 stocks.

Bullish calls are measured as stock return minus benchmark (SPY); bearish calls as benchmark minus stock (a recommendation measure, not a simulated short). Neutral calls are judged inside a ±10% band and excluded from bullish/bearish hit rates. Price-target accuracy (reached before deadline, and distance at deadline) is tracked separately so sources that do not publish targets are not penalized. Outcomes are evaluated at 21, 63, 126 and 252 sessions.

4. Stock Consensus Score (0–100)

Bullish = 100, Neutral = 50, Bearish = 0. Score = Σ(value × weight) ÷ Σ(weight) over active votes. Weight = performance multiplier (0.5–1.5, from the Picker Performance Score) × freshness (half-life 90 days). One vote per picker per stock. Calls expire at their stated horizon or after 180 days when no horizon is given (labeled "assumed"). The default horizon is 365 days. Missing coverage never counts as neutral or bearish. Price targets never move the score; the panel price target is the median of targets with comparable horizons.

Coverage labels: fewer than 5 independent research groups = insufficient; 5–9 = limited; 10+ = standard. A score of 80 means the weighted panel leans strongly bullish. It is not a probability of profit.

5. Why the score changed

Each daily snapshot stores an explanation. Contributions are attributed in a fixed order: (1) new, upgraded, downgraded, reiterated and expired votes; (2) residual drift from freshness decay and performance-weight updates. Contributions reconcile to the displayed change.

6. Stock Market Picks analysis rules

The commentary on every stock page is generated by these rules, in order, and each sentence shows the rule that produced it.

7. Daily update

After each U.S. session the engine refreshes prices, expires stale calls, evaluates newly completed outcomes, recalculates picker scores, snapshots every stock, and writes the change explanation. Failed feeds produce a visible delayed/partial status on the homepage; they never silently remove opinions.

8. What this is not

Scores describe panel opinion and measured history. They are not investment advice, not a forecast by Stock Market Picks, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Every recommendation shown is attributable to a dated source.